Real Estate Refresh

There is another version of this blog I could have written today… It is the one where I tell you that rates hitting 7.28% is actually fine, that the competition is thin, and that you should go buy a house immediately, like yesterday but if not yesterday – today is the best choice. I have made versions of that argument all year and I stand behind them. But I also know that argument starts to sound tone deaf at a certain point, and I think we just might be at that point. What d

Good news. We found the bottom. That was a lie. I wanted to see how it felt to type it. It felt terrible, and I am not going to do that to you. Here is the truth instead. I have written some version of "relief is coming" in this newsletter nine times since January. I was wrong nine times. Not about the core concept, which I still believe. About the timing, which I guess I keep underestimating. So this week I will do the opposite. The 10-year Treasury touched 5.16% Thursday, a

The Fed raised rates Wednesday. I know. You heard. Everyone heard. I am going to spend exactly one paragraph on the mechanics of it and then I want to talk about something that I think matters way more for understanding where this is all headed for Americans, not just real estate. The Federal Reserve voted unanimously 12-0 to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to a target range of 3.75% to 4% - its first increase in over three years. Warsh said plainly: "The pla