How To Win In A Low-Confidence Market.

Most news recaps or blogs you’ll see covering this week will tell you that rates declined for the second week in a row (from the sharp spike we saw a month ago when the war with Iran started) with continued improvement this morning after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open for commercial purposes, sales are down year-over-year from last March but inventory is up. That’s the surface level recap of this week’s headlines and data. 

Of course, I’m here with more. I’m here to go deeper. 

You probably saw the headlines this week that Spring Buying Season 2026 is officially off to a weak start. Now depending on where you are in the country and whether or not you read this blog last week (the major takeaway in case you missed that one: there is no singular US housing market anymore), you might agree that this Spring Buying Season is weak or you might think that’s fake news because your local market is on fire. 

I’m not going to debate whether it’s a normal or slow market, I’ll tell you this. This is a psychologically fucked market during what should be the strongest time of the year. Let’s break down the facets of this psychosis. 

Rates 

Rates did improve this week. Not dramatically but enough that we should have seen more enthusiasm in response. An increase in mortgage applications? You might remember that last time they improved a quarter of point, I got 11 apps in a single day. We should have seen an increase in showings at least. 

We didn’t. 

In fact, pending home sales just posted one of the biggest drops we’ve seen in months. Whether you’re a buyer or a realtor reading this, you probably feel confused. Because we’ve all been told that lower rates will equal more demand. This week proved something for sure. We are not in a market that runs on logic anymore. 

This is also not a rate problem anymore. Bold statement I know, especially considering for the past two years, most have blamed everything on interest rates. But if this was actually a rate problem, demand would’ve responded to the improvement we’ve seen over the past two weeks. 

Spring was supposed to save us. 

It’s the best time of year, right? And inventory has increased technically. Buyers have more options so why is touring activity down at the same time pending deals are decreasing? 

Confidence is lacking. 

I’ve always explained things to you using supply and demand because truly none of this is rocket science. We are in unprecedented times now though, wouldn’t you agree? So allow me to lean a little more dramatic today if you will. Maybe we don’t have a supply and demand issue anymore. Maybe it all comes down to a confidence problem. 

Have you noticed buyers are asking “Can I afford this?” a lot less often right now than they are wondering “What happens if I buy now and the world ends?” 

Kidding aside, buyers are asking different questions lately. Is this the right time? When, if ever, will interest rates improve? What if prices drop? What if the economy shifts? 

More inventory doesn’t really solve any of those dilemmas. If we zoom out, the dilemma (as it always proves to be) is bigger than just what’s happening in real estate. Real estate news was mostly good, as I mentioned. Lower rates, more inventory. 

Global news was mostly bad. Instability increased. Oil markets became more volatile. Economic signals were mixed. No the economy certainly isn’t crashing but it’s not inspiring much confidence either. And I will always argue that real estate decisions are just as emotional as they are financial. 

Pricing 

Let me step out of my lane…to talk about pricing. This is a realtor’s gig. They price a property to sell or to sit. I think it’s a tougher job than usual right now because pricing is disconnecting from reality. Sure that house two doors done just sold two months ago for $700k. We weren’t at war two months ago and interest rates were mid-5’s if you were working with the right lender. We are not in the same reality. That’s a tough pill for sellers to swallow and that’s why we are seeing price drops after listing. Not necessarily because the market is correcting or values are going down. 

How to win in a Low-Confidence Market 

Here’s exactly what you should do with the information I have given you over the past few weeks in three concise, precise tips: 

1. Stop looking at “THE” market. 

Look for your pocket of opportunity based on your buying power and timeframe. Then the graduated advice here is to identify pockets where homes are siting and neighborhoods where sellers are caving and adjusting vs the ones where the listings are playing stalemate (not checkmate). Let the record show I thought that was a fun play on words but if it’s dumb, I’ll say AI wrote it. 

2. Target “almost good enough” homes. 

The best opportunities right now are not the perfect home that had a packed open house and 5 other offers rolling in. Search for the overlooked listings, even the ones everyone agrees are overpriced and try to structure a deal. 

3. Speaking of deals…Win in the terms. 

This isn’t new advice but it’s especially relevant right now. Price is not the only lever. Sometimes it’s not even the most important one. And from the borrower’s point of view, I think the smartest ones haven’t been negotiating on price. They have been engineering their monthly payments or their cash to close or their repairs. They’ve also been the ones who found out what was most important to the seller and made their offer attractive in that specific sense.