If Trump is paying attention to real estate, you should be too

I started this conversation last week – about a real estate market in the midst of global instability, market fatigue, and never-ending political noise. Our world – including the volatile bond market, inventory crisis, bumpy escrows filled with money pinched buyers and sellers – has entered the chat as something grounding?!  As the safe place to focus on? It’s crazy…but true. 

Why housing and why now? 

President Donald Trump gave a very eloquent speech at NATO this week and I want to quote a direct line from it. “The United States will not become a nation of renters.”  Now regardless of your political alignment, this line resonated with many of us because it speaks to security, control, and permanence. I’m not sure if he did this on purpose, but he reframed housing. Not as an investment but as a form of belonging. 

He tied housing to the idea of a stable middle class and emphasized families having to compete with Wall Street for homes. This landed because people are feeling like the system is designed to work against them so again, I’m not sure if he did this on purpose but as someone with a psychology background – I watching him reframe this problem as one of fairness, not failure. It is important to note that institutional investors only own 3% of the housing stock in America and restricting them from purchasing more won’t magically create inventory. In some markets, investors actually add rental supply by improving property. (We have to remember all housing benefits all housing.) 

But I’m beginning to understand how the world works and it’s never just about math. It’s about who the system appears to serve. So this reframe of his was powerful. 

The line. 

The line we don’t really want to focus on but stood out nonetheless: “I could crush the housing market if I wanted to, but I won’t, because it would hurt homeowners.”  This was quite candid admission, even for Trump. It illustrates for us, in very plain language, the tension no administration can escape:  affordability vs. equity. I’ve talked about this before. As locals, homeowners themselves are often hypocrites. We talk a big game about wanting our children to be able to afford homes, but when it comes time to build more homes- when the conversation of density hits too close…we stop it dead in it’s tracks at city council meetings. We put signs in our yards not to develop golf courses because it would bring down our own home value. Trump confirmed what we all know deep down – there is no political promise that is actually going to pan out to dramatically lower home prices. 

For tens of millions of households, their home isn’t just shelter. It’s their largest asset, it might be their retirement plan, it is 100% their safety net. Ultimately, it’s proof their hard work “worked.”  A meaningful drop in home values might make housing affordable for entry level buyers but it would erase trillions in household wealth. It would spook financial markets, weaken consumer confidence, and anger a massive voting block overnight. 

So for any buyer out there waiting for the 2026 home price dip – I need to remind you it’s an election year. You’re waiting for political leaders to act against their own self-interest. They won’t win elections by eroding homeowners’ wealth. 

Why activity continues to pick up… 

Nothing happened that actually moved the needle on affordability, but buyers everywhere have woken up. They feel validated and less foolish about trying to buy a home. Sellers feel that and are more motivated to list their homes. Trump normalized Americans wanting to spend hours and dollars on Zillow. (Or Redfin or Realtor.com or whatever your search engine of choice is) 

The critics are concerned though. 

More activity, more demand…without more inventory…that leads to pricing pressure. The critics want solutions at the local level regarding zoning. At the national level, they say the conversation needs to be about labor shortages and material costs. Trump didn’t mention those in his speech, but he talked about using 401ks for down payments. While not a silver bullet, and also not a new concept, these were signals about housing becoming a priority focus now. 

Instead of debating whether his suggestions will actually work, I want to tell you that if the President is paying attention to housing…you should be too.